TRUMP,TWITTER, AND TREASURIES

After appointing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, President Trump put pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. We show that, on average, a statement from Trump on the Fed led to lower long‐term interest rates, consistent with expectations of lower expected future short rates. However, the impact of Trump's statements declined over time. (JEL E52, E43, E32)     

The Income and Consumption Effects of COVID-19 and the Role of Public Policy*

We provide empirical evidence on the labour market impacts of COVID-19 in the UK and assess the effectiveness of mitigation policies. We estimate the relationship between employment outcomes and occupational and industrial characteristics and assess the effects on consumption. Seventy per cent of households in the bottom fifth of the earnings distribution hold insufficient assets to maintain current spending for more than one week. We compare the effectiveness of the UK's Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and of Economic Impact Payments in the US. The EIPs are more effective at mitigating consumption reductions as they have full coverage, depend on household structure and are higher for low-income workers.     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

Monetary Policy Implementation: Making Better and More Consistent Use of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

Since December 2015, the Federal Reserve has operated a new “floor system” in which it brings about desired changes in its targeted federal funds rate by managing the interest rate it pays on bank reserves and other short‐term liabilities. The design of this new system reflects the tendency of Fed officials to view monetary policy as affecting the economy through Keynesian” interest rate channels. From this Keynesian perspective, policy actions that change the size of the balance sheet are seen as tools for influencing credit market conditions that operate in addition to and independently of the Fed's monetary policy stance. The alternative monetarist framework proposed by the author views monetary policy and its effects as operating through the interaction between money supply and demand. Use of this framework makes clear that, even under a floor system, monetary policy actions designed to affect the aggregate price level and the rate of inflation must be accompanied sooner or later by traditional open market operations that have implications for the size and composition of the Fed's balance sheet. Use of the monetarist framework also underscores the likelihood that the Fed, by paying interest on reserves, has unknowingly contributed to the restrictiveness of its own monetary policies since the financial crisis, a period during which inflation has run consistently below target. More generally, the monetarist framework downplays the importance of the zero lower interest rate bound and suggests that monetary policy could be conducted more effectively by adopting and adhering to a consistent, rule‐like manner during good times and bad.     

A general model to compute activity-based waste disposal costs for health care products

ABSTRACT

Hospitals are large producers of solid waste, of which some is benign, some is extremely hazardous, and much is in between. The cost of segregating and disposing of products in these waste streams is high, and studies have shown there is considerable potential to reduce these costs while simultaneously decreasing environmental impact. In this article we develop an activity-based costing method that assigns waste disposal costs proportionally to each product. By providing disposal cost information at this level of aggregation it is possible to directly influence purchasing decisions, identify priority products for focused interventions, and determine the ratio of a product's purchasing cost to disposal cost. The method is tested on products with different purchasing costs, disposal costs, physical characteristics, and disposal processes.     

Hartz IV: die Lösung für die Probleme in der Währungsunion?

The Hartz reforms are often regarded as the therapy which turned the so called “sick man of Europe” into a global superstar. But this diagnosis was wrong. The strength of the German economy was overshadowed by the negative effects of reunification. The decline in unemployment can partly be attributed to the end of the transformation in East Germany. It also reflects the negative cyclical situation in 2005. This analysis is in line with the finding that compared e.g. with Italy and Greece, German unemployment assistance is still very generous. Thus, for the member states of the Eurozone Hartz IV is not a promising strategy. This could be different should wage moderation be cosnidered. However, if member states practice it simultaneously, this will lead to deflation. This calls for higher wage increases in Germany and a more symmetric adjustment.     

Consumer responses to different degrees of advertising adaptation: the moderating role of national openness to foreign markets

We investigate the moderating role of national openness to foreign markets on consumer responses (attitude to ad, brand and purchase intention) to different degrees of advertising adaptation in Belgium, Iran and India. We operationalize three levels of advertising adaptation (standardization, glocalization and adaptation) by manipulating the model (international versus local celebrity) and advertising copy (international versus local advertising copy). The results show that societies with a low openness to foreign markets respond more positively to fully adapted ads than to glocalized and standardized ads. The differences in responses decrease with national openness.